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Modules / Tools / Defect level (DPPM) estimator

Defect level (DPPM) estimator

Estimate the defective parts per million that escape test from fault coverage and yield with the Williams-Brown and Agrawal models, and the coverage a DPPM target needs.

ReliabilityFree to useHow it worksSourcesWhere it helps

Fills the inputs below with typical figures. Replace any of them with your own.

Yield

The share of die that are good before test. Enter it, or compute it from defect density and die area.

Good die as a share of die tested.

Fault coverage

From your pattern generator's reports. The weights blend the three figures into one effective coverage; set a weight to 0 to leave a figure out.

Subtracted from the weighted coverage. 0 takes fault coverage as defect coverage.

Model and target

Both are always shown in the table.

Used by the Agrawal model. Fit it from wafer test data; 3 is an editorial default.

Burn-in, system-level test, outlier rejection. 0 if none.

After later screens.

Volume
Defect level
3,366 DPPM
Williams and Brown model
Williams and Brown
3,366 DPPM
Before later screens
Agrawal, Seth and Agrawal
513 DPPM
With n = 3, before later screens
Yield and effective coverage
90.0% and 96.800%
Coverage the target needs
99.525%
2.725 points more than you have
Escapes per lot
76
22,576 parts shipped from 25,000 tested
Escapes per year
33,659
10,000,000 parts shipped

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Defect level against fault coverage, Williams and Brown model
Line chart of Defect level (DPPM) against Fault coverage (%), 3 lines: Yield 90.0% (yours), Yield 70.0%, Yield 99.0%. The same numbers are in the table under the chart.010,00020,00030,0009092949698100Fault coverage (%)Defect level (DPPM)
  • Yield 90.0% (yours) (solid line, circles)
  • Yield 70.0% (dashed line, squares)
  • Yield 99.0% (dotted line, triangles)
Show the data as a table
Defect level against fault coverage, Williams and Brown model
Fault coverage (%)Yield 90.0% (yours)Yield 70.0%Yield 99.0%
9010,48135,0391,005
90.59,95933,316954
919,43831,591904
91.58,91629,862854
928,39328,131804
92.57,87126,396753
937,34824,658703
93.56,82522,917653
946,30221,173603
94.55,77819,426553
955,25417,676502
95.54,73015,922452
964,20614,166402
96.53,68112,406352
973,15610,643301
97.52,6318,877251
982,1057,108201
98.51,5795,336151
991,0533,560100
99.55271,78250.3
100000
Defect level by coverage, at your yield (DPPM, after later screens if any)
Coverage (%)Williams and BrownAgrawal
9010,4811,833
90.59,9591,724
919,4381,618
91.58,9161,513
928,3931,410
92.57,8711,309
937,3481,209
93.56,8251,112
946,3021,016
94.55,778922
955,254830
95.54,730740
964,206651
96.53,681564
973,156479
97.52,631395
982,105313
98.51,579232
991,053153
99.552775.9
10000
Coverage needed for each defect level target, at your yield
Target (DPPM)Williams and BrownAgrawal
199.999%99.993%
1099.991%99.934%
5099.953%99.670%
10099.905%99.344%
50099.525%96.875%
1,00099.050%94.086%
5,00095.242%78.334%

How it works

Defect level is the share of parts that pass production test and are still bad. It is quoted in defective parts per million (DPPM). This tool turns process yield and fault coverage into a DPPM figure with the Williams and Brown model and the Agrawal, Seth and Agrawal model, and works backwards to the coverage a DPPM target needs.

  1. Find the yield. Enter the process yield, or compute it from defect density and die area. Poisson treats defects as random and independent, Murphy softens that for clustering, and the negative binomial model has a clustering factor alpha. Area is in cm2 (100 mm2 is 1 cm2).Poisson: Y = e^(−A x D0); Murphy: Y = ((1 − e^(−A x D0)) / (A x D0))^2; negative binomial: Y = (1 + A x D0 / alpha)^(−alpha)
  2. Combine the coverage figures. Stuck-at, transition and cell-aware coverage come from the pattern generator's reports. They are blended with weights you set (for example the share of the fault universe each one addresses) into one effective coverage. A derating, in percentage points, allows for real defects that none of the fault models describe. Set a weight to zero to leave a figure out.T = (w1 x T stuck-at + w2 x T transition + w3 x T cell-aware) / (w1 + w2 + w3) − derating
  3. Williams and Brown defect level. If every fault is equally likely and independent, the share of passing parts that are bad depends only on yield and coverage. The share of tested die that pass is Y^T.DL = 1 − Y^(1 − T); share passing = Y^T
  4. Agrawal, Seth and Agrawal defect level. Real defects cluster, so a faulty chip usually carries several faults and is easier to catch than a chip with one. The model adds n, the average number of faults on a faulty chip. The numerator is the share of all die that are bad and still pass; the share of die that pass is Y plus that term. A larger n gives a lower defect level at the same coverage. n is fitted from wafer test data; the default is an editorial value.DL = (1 − T)(1 − Y) e^(−(n − 1) T) / (Y + (1 − T)(1 − Y) e^(−(n − 1) T))
  5. Escapes and later screens. Escapes in a lot are the parts shipped times the defect level. Burn-in, system-level test and outlier screens can catch a share of the escapes, which scales the defect level down by one minus that share.shipped per lot = tested x share passing; escapes per lot = shipped x DL x (1 − later screen share)
  6. Coverage a target needs. For Williams and Brown the equation inverts exactly. For the Agrawal model the tool solves for the coverage by bisection, which works because the defect level falls steadily as coverage rises. The target is first divided by one minus the later screen share, so the answer is the coverage the test itself must reach.Williams and Brown: T = 1 − ln(1 − DL target) / ln(Y); Agrawal: solve DL(T) = DL target for T

Assumptions

  • Yield and coverage are fractions of the same population: Y is the share of good die, T the share of all possible faults the test detects.
  • Williams and Brown assumes each possible fault is independent and equally likely, and that the test itself is fault free.
  • The Agrawal model uses a fitted average number of faults per faulty chip, n, which the default sets at an editorial value of 3. Fit it from your wafer test data for a real decision.
  • Presets use editorial yield, coverage and n figures for a typical case, not data from any company.

Limits and warnings

  • Fault coverage from ATPG is not defect coverage. Defects outside the fault models escape, so the computed DPPM is a lower bound on what customers see.
  • Both models describe an average over many lots; one lot can be far better or worse.
  • Yield here is the yield at the test step. If sort and final test are separate, apply the model to the combined test and use the yield before sort.
  • Analogue, RF, memory and parametric failures are not covered by digital fault models; cover them with their own screens and report DPPM for them separately.
  • Other published defect level models (for example Seth and Agrawal's later variants) are not included here; the two models above are the ones in common use for DPPM budgeting.

Sources

The methods and default figures rest on these public sources. The wording here is our own; read the source for its full text.

  • Defect Level as a Function of Fault Coverage (opens in a new tab), T. W. Williams and N. C. Brown, IEEE Transactions on Computers, vol. C-30, no. 12, pp. 987-988, December 1981. DL = 1 − Y^(1 − T).
  • Fault Coverage Requirement in Production Testing of LSI Circuits (opens in a new tab), V. D. Agrawal, S. C. Seth and P. Agrawal, IEEE Journal of Solid-State Circuits, vol. SC-17, no. 1, pp. 57-61, February 1982. Model with the average number of faults on a faulty chip, n, and the yield.
  • Essentials of Electronic Testing for Digital, Memory and Mixed-Signal VLSI Circuits, chapter 3, Test Economics and Product Quality, M. L. Bushnell and V. D. Agrawal, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000. Textbook treatment of yield and defect level as a quality measure.

Where it helps

The lifecycle stages this tool serves: 6 stages in 5 lifecycles.

Method notev1Formula, ranges, sources and limits

Estimates the defective parts per million that pass test from process yield and fault coverage with the Williams and Brown and Agrawal models, and the coverage a DPPM target needs.

Formula

Poisson: Y = e^(−A x D0); Murphy: Y = ((1 − e^(−A x D0)) / (A x D0))^2; negative binomial: Y = (1 + A x D0 / alpha)^(−alpha); T = (w1 x T stuck-at + w2 x T transition + w3 x T cell-aware) / (w1 + w2 + w3) − derating; DL = 1 − Y^(1 − T); share passing = Y^T; DL = (1 − T)(1 − Y) e^(−(n − 1) T) / (Y + (1 − T)(1 − Y) e^(−(n − 1) T)); shipped per lot = tested x share passing; escapes per lot = shipped x DL x (1 − later screen share); Williams and Brown: T = 1 − ln(1 − DL target) / ln(Y); Agrawal: solve DL(T) = DL target for T

Inputs
InputUnitRange it holds forComes from
Yield sourcechoicedirect, poisson, murphy, negbinYour figure
Process yield%0.1 to 100Your figure
Defect densitydefects per cm20 to 5Your figure
Die areamm2 or cm2from 0Your figure
Die area unitchoicemm2, cm2Your figure
Clustering factor alphanone0.1 to 20Your figure
Stuck-at coverage%0 to 100Your figure
Transition coverage%0 to 100Your figure
Cell-aware coverage%0 to 100Your figure
Weight of stuck-at coveragerelativefrom 0Your figure
Weight of transition coveragerelativefrom 0Your figure
Weight of cell-aware coveragerelativefrom 0Your figure
Derating for defects the fault models misspercentage points0 to 20Your figure
Model for the headline figurechoicewilliams, agrawalYour figure
Average faults on a faulty chipfaults1 to 20Your figure
Escapes caught by later screens%0 to 100Your figure
Target defect levelDPPMfrom 0Your figure
Die tested per lotdiefrom 0Your figure
Parts shipped per yearpartsfrom 0Your figure

Outputs: Defect level, chosen model, before later screens (DPPM); Defect level, Williams and Brown (DPPM); Defect level, Agrawal (DPPM); Effective fault coverage (%); Coverage the target needs (%); Expected escapes per lot (parts).

Assumptions

  • Yield and coverage are fractions of the same population: Y is the share of good die, T the share of all possible faults the test detects.
  • Williams and Brown assumes each possible fault is independent and equally likely, and that the test itself is fault free.
  • The Agrawal model uses a fitted average number of faults per faulty chip, n, which the default sets at an editorial value of 3. Fit it from your wafer test data for a real decision.
  • Presets use editorial yield, coverage and n figures for a typical case, not data from any company.

Uncertainty: The arithmetic is exact. The result is a model value: fault coverage stands in for defect coverage and n is fitted, so expect field defect levels to differ by a factor of two or more from the computed figure.

Known limits

  • Fault coverage from ATPG is not defect coverage. Defects outside the fault models escape, so the computed DPPM is a lower bound on what customers see.
  • Both models describe an average over many lots; one lot can be far better or worse.
  • Yield here is the yield at the test step. If sort and final test are separate, apply the model to the combined test and use the yield before sort.
  • Analogue, RF, memory and parametric failures are not covered by digital fault models; cover them with their own screens and report DPPM for them separately.
  • Other published defect level models (for example Seth and Agrawal's later variants) are not included here; the two models above are the ones in common use for DPPM budgeting.

Where the method comes from

Follows Williams and Brown, Defect Level as a Function of Fault Coverage (IEEE Transactions on Computers, December 1981) (opens in a new tab). The platform's version departs from it as follows.

  • The Agrawal, Seth and Agrawal model is offered beside Williams and Brown Why: Williams and Brown assumes independent faults, which overstates the defect level for clustered defects; the Agrawal model adds the average faults per faulty chip.
  • Three coverage figures are weighted into one, with an optional derating Why: Production flows report stuck-at, transition and cell-aware coverage separately, and none of them is full defect coverage.
  • A share of escapes can be credited to later screens Why: Automotive and other high-reliability flows rely on burn-in and outlier rejection beyond scan test to reach very low DPPM.

Reference example, checked by test: Williams and Brown relation applied by hand in the tool's unit test: yield 70%, stuck-at coverage 99%, no other coverage weighted, n = 3, no later screens, target 100 DPPM. Defect level, chosen model, before later screens 3,560.4; Defect level, Williams and Brown 3,560.4; Defect level, Agrawal 591.375; Effective fault coverage 99; Coverage the target needs 99.972; Expected escapes per lot 25.0118.

Versions

  • v1 (2026-10-25): First version, built from the tool idea.

All models in the register

Terms on this page

DPPM
The count of defective units per million shipped, the standard currency of component quality performance.
Fault coverage
The fraction of faults in the fault list that a pattern set detects, counting only faults that are actually detected in the numerator and every fault including untestable ones in the denominator.
Yield
The share of manufactured units that meet specification, counted at a given step: line yield through the fab, die yield at wafer sort, and assembly and final test yield after packaging.
Production test
The testing applied to every manufactured unit, at wafer sort and final test, to screen out defective parts before shipment.
Line yield
The fraction of wafers started that emerge from the fab intact and eligible for test, lost to breakage, misprocessing, scrap and hold decisions rather than to die-level defects.
D0
The average number of yield-killing defects per unit area, conventionally per square centimetre, used as the single parameter summarising a process's random defect performance in yield models.
Die size
The physical area of a single chip on the wafer, set by whichever dominates: total logic and memory area, IO and bump count, or analogue and power structures.
Mask writer
The tool that exposes the pattern into resist on a mask blank, using either a shaped electron beam or a multi-beam array.
Derating
Applying a multiplicative factor to cell and net delays to model variation or guard band, typically slowing the launch path and speeding the capture path for setup and the reverse for hold.
Die
A single rectangular block of processed silicon cut from a finished wafer, carrying one complete circuit.
Chip
The everyday word for a finished integrated circuit, used loosely for both the bare die and the packaged part sold to a customer.
Wafer
A thin, polished disc of single-crystal silicon on which hundreds or thousands of identical circuits are built at the same time.

The full glossary

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